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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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What is the Beta of Safaricom?
What do we benchmark against?
Investment Banks in Kenya need to become competent centers. The No meaningful figures NMF or N/A stats on Kenyan company Beta's,ROE's etc stalls our capital markets.
There is an opportunity for data,well crunched data of volumes,liquidities and the rest to unlock trading in our markets.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/19/2007 Posts: 68
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Safaricom's beta is 0.62 compared against the all share index. Check it here http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCOM
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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I would have estimated the that Safaricom would have a Beta of 1. being more than 15% of the current Market cap.
Which index is the benchmark?
We should start doing some real analysis here in stockskenya. Ie have some simulated DCF's. etc
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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@caesar: The benchmark is NSE-20. It is NOT capitalisation-weighted,thus SCOM carries same weight as all other constituents. With only 50-odd companies and the NSE-20 constituents accounting for over 80% of makt cap,the NASI (also price-weighted) follows the NSE-20 like Venus behind the Moon! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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So with 0.62 beta if on one day the (NSE -20-type) market index goes up by 10%,Safaricom will go up by not exactly but close to 6.2%.
@Mukiha could you agree with this statement?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/19/2007 Posts: 68
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@caesar: loosely put,your statement is true.
beta is a measure of volatility/risk of a stock based on a given benchmark (in our case NASI). It can provide insight into the movements of a particular stock relative to market movements.
compare beta of EQTY at 2.51 & ACCS at 1.82 (very volatile) against TOTL @ 0.67 & JUB @ 0.44 (very stable)
What am not sure is the timeframe in which the folk at mystocks use to compute their beta values. anything 3 months and above should suffice tho
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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What kind of analysis do people do here in stocks Kenya?
Multiples?
EVA?
DCF?
or just politics speculation. How do we determine that at 2.95 safaricom or equity at 14 if it is correctly,under valued,or overvalued.
Where can the Other Sk's get this information?
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/19/2007 Posts: 68
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wewe @ceasar shida yako ni nini? Is it that you are here to size people up?
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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@ Stocksguru,I am not sizing people here but I guess I have not heard anyone here even the most popular members talk of how they value the companies they invest in. More of what I hear with people is hunches.
Where is Jammo,Tusker Baridi,Mukiha,Wakibugi,Pablo,Mlefu,Leona,SK,Cindano,real Shaft,estacy,Obi,Prof Ouma,Wakibugi,Mkenya,Marexx,eddiemundu,wendz,njunge,richsure,... I would like to hear from them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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If the name sounds nice,I buy!!! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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@Mukiha,me too,but i go a step further and arrange the companies in alphabetic order. The closer to 'A' the more money i put in The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/19/2007 Posts: 68
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@The general and @mukiha: name-based 'analysis methods' are like sooo 70s. Practical guys from the 8-4-4 era like myself construct 'picky-picky-ponky' charts......
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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@ stocks guru,i cant thank you enough. Correct me if am wrong,but (23%) in Swahili is the same as 123% right? The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/19/2008 Posts: 4,268
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@Caesar
You may find many people who invest in NSE do not do those technical analysis of the shares for one major reason (among others) - investor ignorance.
When NSE started admitting mama wambui,wa otieno from Ukulima market,and the John's,Rachel's of the corporate and civil service world who have no sligtest idea of how to invest in shares but want to be in it for fashion,thats when numbers started going hy-wire(sp). You find many emotional investors who will sell for any slightest rumor hence,if you are a speculator guru in stocks,you find you got to move with the market asmuch as it might not be making sense to buy,you cash in as people start spoiling for a dying horse so that you can sell it when everyone is jumping in.... Ordinarily,you wouldnt have bought such.... even for speculation because,if everyone knew the state of the company,no one would touch it. Thats not to say that everyone does it,but sometimes,even with your numbers,you find the market doesnt make sense - may be the reason why we may not be ready for sophisticated financial products.... emotions,emotions..... not numbers - alot of the times,rule. Thats my observation but stand corrected..
Some deals are like glass. Sometimes it's better to leave them broken than try to hurt yourself putting it back together.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/19/2007 Posts: 68
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@ General: nowhere in the Tony Oz book does he say you can analyze stocks in Kiswahili. At CDSC we dont even store your shares in Kiswahili. nini mbaya na wewe?
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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@ Wendz, You wouldn't buy KCB simply because you like the color green? get serious.. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 6/19/2008 Posts: 4,268
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@The General
hehehe.... got NIC coz i liked one handsome guy in their advert...... hhehehhe and their new logo looked beautiful... I bet that's worthwhile than the plain green color of KCB...
Some deals are like glass. Sometimes it's better to leave them broken than try to hurt yourself putting it back together.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/3/2006 Posts: 553
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LOGO...there i was thinking am ahead of the game....clearly this spring chicken is miles ahead... The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie. The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114
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Colour schemes and logos are weak. I stick to good strong names! Something like CMC - very strong and solid,and heck,it's got two of my initials! A strong name makes for a strong company. @Wendz: the problem with advert characters is that they don't work for the company they advertise. I would recommend you visit their branches and see if you can find some handsome (talk & dark) young guys working there....if there are,then I will back your investment in the company I used to do that (but looking out for girls instead of boys!!) and it paid back handsome....bought KQ at 7.35 and off-loaded at 120!! Thanks to beautiful girls!! Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow) Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/25/2007 Posts: 149
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'I mean fundamental analysis,you get me? Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health,its management and competitive advantages,and its competitors'
Fudaah's interesting signature
I had talked to one of my rich friend who thought that buying shares was like buying land. That the share certificate was like a holding a titledeed. He gravitated towards big names,Kenya airways,NIC,Barclays. and was in love with his stocks. He did not see the opportunities in Equiy Bank even after observing long lines outside banks.
How come companies with unlimited backlog of future demand for products ie Kengen,and Express Kenya. prices are still beaten down?
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