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KPLC split/rights timeline
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guru267
#11 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 5:28:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
KIRTI wrote:
Even if you are right & share price will go up to 30 bob after conversion & split, still i will suggest to offload your share at current price. Just keep only 100 share & apply for additional share as much as possible. you will get it as GOk will not take their right.


@KIRTI thats where you're wrong AGAIN!!! i remind you this is not KCB and the rights will be oversubscribed...

so if you sell now and keep 100 shares get ready to get only the 39 rights shares you will be entitled to and NOTHING MORE!!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#12 Posted : Monday, October 18, 2010 7:47:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
KIRTI wrote:
Even if you are right & share price will go up to 30 bob after conversion & split, still i will suggest to offload your share at current price. Just keep only 100 share & apply for additional share as much as possible. you will get it as GOk will not take their right.

I pity those who will dump this stock to remain with 100 shares hoping to successfully apply for more shares.
I tell you the over subscription will shock the market and give the stock at some point a PE of 19. If Kengen, with its reduced earnings can stil command a PE of 18, how much more can KPLC go.
I concur with Guru, in all his sentiments and thank him for taking Kirti through KPLC 101!
@SufficientlyP
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Gordon Gekko
#13 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 8:57:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@guru, I don't understand @KIRTI's logic but I agree with him (and have mentioned it before) that the rights will be under-subscribed.
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VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:16:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@GG - Between the Rights taken up + Additional Shares taken up + Underwriting = Over-subscription...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#15 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:35:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....
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VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:40:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

@GG - You are right... I meant to say with the 'confidence' underwriting brings to the table e.g. TPSEA... there is a greater chance of full uptake... In the event, there is an 'under-subscription' then the underwriters take up the rest... All in all... All the shares will be taken up...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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hisah
#17 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:41:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vvs, underwriting doesn't come into play as they will mop up only when the issue is under-subscribed hence ensuring all rights will be taken up. There will be enough shares for everyone who wants, then the underwriter will move in to clean up.

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....


I'm also questioning the rationale behind global early redemption i.e. without disabilities, death etc.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:43:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:

BTW, the RBA have allowed those retrenched to access their employers pension contributions. This should be a major dagger in the back for institutional investors - hence under-subscription....

Not necessarily...

1) Those retrenched may be a small portion of the total claimants on Pension Funds
2) Not all will withdraw their savings/pension cash
3) New contributions will continue coming into Pension Funds even while withdrawals are made. New cash pays off old cash
4) Insurance firms are huge 'investors' & many Kenyans are moving to Life Insurance among other products are 'trust' in NSSF is diminished
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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PKoli
#19 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 9:44:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
The monies we are talking about is little. In the neighbourhood of 10billion, that is very little money for a utility company with such a huge asset base. The rights will alll be taken up, including those that gava will not take.
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guru267
#20 Posted : Tuesday, October 19, 2010 10:17:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
All the guys who think the rights will be undersubscribed can follow @GG and @KIRTI'S strategy then we will see how that works out for you...

There will be too much value offered in the rights plus G.O.K plans to offer their rights to Institutions under private placement meaning they won't be accesible on the NSE..

Then we have the existing shareholders who will see the value in rights offered at 167bob and we also have the underwriters

All clear signs of an over subscription.

Plus i think guys should consider the fact that KCB had 3 rights issues in 5 years and they still had a 87% subscription rate for the latest ones...

plus TPS and stanchart whose rights issues had value were all significantly oversubscribed
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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