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Jubilee Insurance a buy @ 190?
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the deal
#1 Posted : Friday, October 08, 2010 4:24:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say...
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Gordon Gekko
#2 Posted : Friday, October 08, 2010 5:01:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Madam G gave this one a thumbs up way back
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The Merchant
#3 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 11:15:04 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@guru. This thread was specially designed to pull you out of hiding. Please oblige us. On to you.
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PKoli
#4 Posted : Tuesday, October 12, 2010 11:56:33 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say...


Insurance companies on NSE trade at a much lower pe than financials. I have never known why. Jubilee is a real blue chip. If it will post full year results like shown above, we should a price of around KES 250
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guru267
#5 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 1:06:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say...


@the deal I must have missed this thread...

my sentiments on Jubilee are extremely bullish...
You may or may not be aware that Jubilee has 5billion invested in the NSE and we all know how this year has been going on the market...

@PKoli there are only 3 insurance firms on the NSE and their P/E's are the most spread apart..

Pan Africa is trading with a P/E of over 20
Kenya re is trading with a P/E of 5
Jubilee is trading with a P/E of 11


with Jubilee's sound management there is no reason why it should not be valued the same as Pan Africa is seeing as they give a bonus share almost every year with dividends and its not a Kenya re..

To me JHL is worth 300bob and i know value will be unlocked soon

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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KIRTI
#6 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 1:54:05 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.
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the deal
#7 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 2:19:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KIRTI wrote:
JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.

Lucky you..i'm going in tomorrow...Jubilee is the ultimate blue chip on the NSE...That balance sheet is fat...
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guru267
#8 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 2:28:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
KIRTI wrote:
JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.

Lucky you..i'm going in tomorrow...Jubilee is the ultimate blue chip on the NSE...That balance sheet is fat...


@the deal @KIRTI welcome to the club...Applause Applause the market has really undervalued this counter on the basis of a low interim dividend but i have confidence in a full year dividend of 5 shillings plus a bonus share... so 2011 here i come...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mwanahisa
#9 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 2:56:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
I love Jubilee and believe it is a fantastic company. I have actually held the counter for over 10 years and it has been a major stabilizing force within my long term portfolio.

Over the years, I have beeen ploughing back profits from speculative activities into the counter. Conversely when markets fall, I sell it to buy those shares that are really beaten down. I have taken losses in such instances on Jubilee, only to recoup them several times over. A case in point is last year when I sold it and bought Mumias. It has therefore been very good insurance (note the term) in the portfolio.

As a short term play you are unlikely to go far with it. So get in ONLY if you are prepared to hang in there.

And by the way g267 - I can bet there will be no bonus issue declared from 2010 results. They already issued one this year!

Having said that I expect to price to climb upwards steadily but not at the rate at which the banks do.
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guru267
#10 Posted : Wednesday, October 13, 2010 4:31:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa and what stops them giving another bonus this year... the company paid 1bob interim dividend with a 8bob EPS... it most likely looks like they will pay 5bob for the full year....

If the directors dare pay 5bob dividend with an EPS of over 20 and not issue bonnus shares they will have to face the WRATH of the shareholders...

And besides Jubilee is trying to increase its paid up capital and the easiest way is to issue bonuses every year.... it also helps to avoid a split which i know jubilee doesnt want...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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