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KPLC share capital restructuring - Time to bail out?
mwanahisa
#21 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 8:36:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
VituVingiSana wrote:
Bw.cnn -

I do NOT know how many shares will be allocated to GoK (though we know the 'value' approx 13.8bn worth) so it's a guesstimate at best.

The NAV (many assets have not been revalued for years) is higher than current price. Strong earnings growth.

As an existing shareholder, I hope they are priced higher than the current market price. The current price is 'low' partly due to the uncertainty created by the announcement.

I believe the intrinsic value of KPLC is north of 200/-.


@VVS. You were right. The conversion is being done at a price of Kshs 207.50. However, Govt is still screwing us as no revaluation of assets has been done.

One positive thing is that by waiting the price moved from 140 at the time of the initial announcement to 237 as of yesterday.
mwanahisa
#22 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 8:55:12 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Govt is converting all the 7.85% preference shares and not the 87% that had initially been mentioned. 76,622,891 new shares will be created as a result.

The total number of shares then becomes 155,750,891. The diluted trailing EPS then becomes 23.86 and at yesterday's price of 237 this is a PE ratio of 9.93. NBV is 184.53 giving a PBV of 1.28 at yesterday's price. We however know that NBV is still understated, because assets have not been revalued.

A 8:1 split of shares brings the total number of shares to 1,246,007,128. "Splitting" yesterday's price brings this to Kshs 29.63 with an EPS of 2.98.

A rights issue of 488,630,245 new shares is roughly a 40% entitlement. If the rumours that Govt intends to raise 10 Billion from the rights issue are true the rights price will therefore be 20.47 giving a 31% discount to the current price.

With above factors, I can confidently say KPLC should be a BUY. If the market trades at a PE ratio of 12 price could get to 286, given the diluted EPS of 23.86!!!
VituVingiSana
#23 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:01:15 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - Let's factor in the growth in profits in 2010-11 due to increased supply from Hydro (well, it remains iffy), Geo-Thermal, Co-Gen (Mumias et al) & Thermal...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#24 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:07:39 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Sure VVS. A lot more power will be coming into the grid in the next few years and as far as I know KPLC will remain the main distributor.

And by the way, restructuring removes the anxiety that's been dogging this share for ages.
Gordon Gekko
#25 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:09:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
I'm not in KPLC, but the prospects look good. I intend to buy a token 100 shares then wait for the rights issue where I will apply for extra shares at the rights price.smile
Iborian
#26 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:12:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/17/2009
Posts: 194
@GG. Now that is a strategy that could work. Indeed it could prevent the price from going up as like minded guys sell and wait for rights.
Renegade
#27 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:18:53 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/18/2009
Posts: 118
Judging from the price action, it looks like 240 is the resistance level. The PE level of 10 looks about right.
mwanahisa
#28 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:23:52 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Iborian wrote:
@GG. Now that is a strategy that could work. Indeed it could prevent the price from going up as like minded guys sell and wait for rights.


It seems we have a debate here. This is certainly a possibility (in the short run), but in my view it will only DELAY the inevitable.
VituVingiSana
#29 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:29:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,350
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
Sure VVS. A lot more power will be coming into the grid in the next few years and as far as I know KPLC will remain the main distributor.

And by the way, restructuring removes the anxiety that's been dogging this share for ages.
Not quite... there remains the 9 Preference Shares not accounted for! Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

Anyway, the next step is the price of the Rights... Since the Conversion was done at 207.50 I hope the Rights is at least 20% lower so 167.50 or lower...

I am disappointed at a Conversion at 207.50 [lower than current market price of 238/-]...

A 40% Rights at 20% discount to 238 = 238 x 40% x 80% = 76/- 'gain' per share if I do not want to exercise the Rights...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#30 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 9:44:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@VVS, which 9 preference shares - are you talking of the rounding?
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