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mlennyma
#1 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:06:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
The first 6months are over,and as we eagerly wait,this is my estimate...mpesa and data revenue was untouched and experienced growth for the last six months am giving this space like 4.8b,on the other hand revenue from voice was affected for the last one month so just give it 6b...is my estimate of 10.8b half year a dream?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:10:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
The first 6months are over,and as we eagerly wait,this is my estimate...mpesa and data revenue was untouched and experienced growth for the last six months am giving this space like 4.8b,on the other hand revenue from voice was affected for the last one month so just give it 6b...is my estimate of 10.8b half year a dream?

Before i Zains price wars i predicted a 12billion PBT....

So i agree with your new prediction
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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2012
#3 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:53:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
10b PBT would be FANTASTIC! But I think it's a bit optimistic. I would put it at about 6.8b but I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

BBI will solve it :)
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Sober
#4 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:54:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Did u say affected for th last one month, then why is it that it becomes so important.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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guru267
#5 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:17:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
2012 wrote:
10b PBT would be FANTASTIC! But I think it's a bit optimistic. I would put it at about 6.8b but I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

@2012 i think you're abit to pessimistic... Price wars have been going on for only a month and last year they announced 9.8billion PBT...

I was expecting 12 but i'm sure we'll get 10.8billion....

Though the second half is what we should be most worried about...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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muganda
#6 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 11:43:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Oh Ye of little faith!
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hisah
#7 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 12:56:44 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I expect 10B for 1H, but the haircut will be in 2H results. I've been wondering since safcom extended the offer till Nov, what if the bluff that they expect on Zain's price war comes to pass. That should see some serious buy volumes. I know it sounds like a dream, but who doesn't have one.

Full year maybe 12B. Anything more will be very positive.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mlennyma
#8 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:44:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Good brains here! and i hear the gvt pockets are growing thinner so a meeting to reverse the rough play could be in the offing.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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sheep
#9 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 1:54:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
ill buy whenever there will be a panic...2h most likely.
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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youcan'tstopusnow
#10 Posted : Monday, November 01, 2010 2:34:35 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
I now have major doubts about how much Zain (and others) are going to eat into Safaricom's market share. Yes, Safaricom's profit may plummet, but market share will remain constant, or even edge up. Have you seen their new strategy? Its called COPYCAT. Safcom just waits for other market players to come up with new products and they just follow suit. Don't get me wrong, it's pretty darn effective. They just sit by the radio and wait for a rival's announcement, then just mirror it a week later. What did they do when Zain reduced call rates? Or for international call rates? And I bet if Zain launched 3G with dirt cheap data rates, Safcom will do the same. Effect? No gain for any of Safaricom's competitors. I think it is a brilliant strategy. Zain, yu and Orange are bound to get frustrated by any avenue they try. How long can these games go on? Forever, I hope. Cause this wars have been smashing for the consumer.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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