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KP&L - Just a matter of time
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 2:09:26 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Sober wrote:
No supply today. absolutely.

Over 17,000 shares of offer from 240-250...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#12 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 2:59:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
As much as the conversion of the 7.85% non-cumm Pref stock to equity will see the Govt end up being the majority s/holder, not a good thing for you and i, i believe the Rights issue which makes no financial sense to the investor who can't be able to borrow at 7.85% or low, is intended to bring down the Govt s/holding to slightly above 50% from highs of 70% after the conversion, by the Govt renouncing some of its rights n trade them at the NSE. With a majority stake, the Govt will be able to qualify for sovereign loans n hav itself as the guarantor, due to its majority stake.

http://www.afdb.org/en/p...loans-for-public-sector/
@SufficientlyP
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 9:52:46 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
GoK can guarantee loans even if it does not have a controlling interest in a firm. I do not like the thought of GoK having 50% control though even at 48% they do have effective control...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#14 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 11:07:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoK can guarantee loans even if it does not have a controlling interest in a firm. I do not like the thought of GoK having 50% control though even at 48% they do have effective control...


If only GoK could reduce its stake to 30% or below. In the short term this would create a share oversupply, but the big boys would be ready to scoop them up and more willing to hold longer.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#15 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 1:16:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
GoK can guarantee loans even if it does not have a controlling interest in a firm. I do not like the thought of GoK having 50% control though even at 48% they do have effective control...


If only GoK could reduce its stake to 30% or below. In the short term this would create a share oversupply, but the big boys would be ready to scoop them up and more willing to hold longer.

@hisah this counter is very strongly held by institutions and thats what i like about it....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 6:04:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru267 wrote:
@hisah this counter is very strongly held by institutions and thats what i like about it....

Just like KCB
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Renegade
#17 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 8:21:45 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/18/2009
Posts: 118
Can someone answer this question.

What is the real value of KPLC?

Try and respond to this question with respect to the EPS (both undiluted and diluted) and expected conversion values for the government prefs under different scenarios e.g. at Kshs 180, 210 and 240. Extropolate using expected growth in profits and dividends.

Now justify current and/or expected price. Is still reasonable to expect the counter to hit 300?

SHOW ALL WORKINGS.

20 MARKS.
guru267
#18 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 8:42:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@renegade i'd be very happy to do so....

If they do the conversion at 180(i'm using worst case scenario from your question)... this will give
15.9billion/180 which creates 88.3million new shares....

Add this to the existing 79.128 million shares and you get 167.4 million shares....

If current profits rise by 10% then diluted EPS will be 24.3bob...

Multiply this by the market or sector P/E of 14 and you have a share price of 340 AFTER the share conversion...

Now you can only imagine if they convert at 300 like @VVS wants... Laughing out loudly
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwanahisa
#19 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:15:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Wow. This is getting better and better.
Sober
#20 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:39:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
this share traded at 355 at one time when the company was not yet out of the woods in terms of the balance sheet. assuming an even greater thirst will be there when the restructuring occurs and the great pachage (dividends) i am raising my bet to over 320 KES per share.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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