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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
Scubidu
#41 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:52:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Yes scooby. I'm aware of Tier II capital. However, in most cases to the best my knowledge from Barclays to CFC to I&M, most subordinate debt did not exceed 50% of core capital. I assumed this is a regulatory rule considering some banks disclose that requirement in their books. We had a brief conversation about this a while ago (refer to link below).

http://www.wazua.com/for...osts&t=6126&p=5

But if you're right then what stops other banks like Barclays issuing debt capital that exceeds equity? So equity is capitalised at 25b. HF raise about 175% its core capital. So could Barclays theoretically issue more than 15b in debt and add it to its tier II capital?

KCB had initially considered raising 15b from a bond if I'm not mistaken, why did they change there mind. Perhaps realistically they couldn't raise more than 11b and it seems they didn't what to issue it in tranches, possibly the primary reason for choosing equity to raise the 15b in one go.

Their objective was to raise capital? Perhaps HF's objective was to raise long term funds. What you think? I'm more concerned about the HF's finance costs based on the debt:equity ratio/leverage than why HF were allowed to issue so much debt?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#42 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 9:31:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I don't think a bank would want to issue either shares or debt if they already meet the minimum capital requirement. FYI, Barclays did issue the first tranche (Shs. 5 billion) of a Shs. 12 billion subordinated debt in 2007/2008.

Also, its not about the level of capital that you have, but how well you put your capital to use. Equity Bank is currently trying to figure out how to use its large capital base hence their big interest in Housing Finance.

For KCB, the decision for opt for debt or equity is purely a management decision. Maybe they decided to have a rights issue first then a debt issue later..like what HF did.

For HF, you shouldn't be worried about financing costs. Look at Net Interest Income instead...which compares the interest income earned on the mortgages to the cost of funding deposits/debts.
CapitalMarketsGeek
#43 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 1:35:09 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/11/2010
Posts: 36
Scooby and Scobidu...
If the company issued more debt and could actually raise capital using debt, then thats great coz debt financing is cheaper than equity financing thats why companies prefer debt finance over equity finance. The only thing that stop a company from being 100% debt financed is that there is a point in a capital structure model above which financial distress is imminent and its well over 50% debt but varies btw industries.
Scubidu
#44 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 11:15:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Cool scooby. I'm actually looking at the interest margin for Q2 which wasn't really good, but i hope HF can translate those funds into revenue. They don't seem to hold much govt debt so i hope they have good liquidity in future to leverage on their capital base.

http://www.basel-ii-acco...uents_of_capital_49.htm

@CMG. Debt financing is indeed cheaper in terms of the intermediary costs vs bank loans. But with banks like HF I'm wondering whether leverage is really the best thing, given the statement some guys have made on real estate on the basel post.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#45 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 4:51:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I started to get worried about a decline in HF's net interest rate margin as from 2008. If you remember, that's when they started issuing mortgage packages to various companies at ridiculuosly low interest rates.

For instance, Nation Media staff were being granted loans at 7%. Here is the link that am referring to - http://www.housing.co.ke...=newsevents&sid=95.

So, one would realise that any funds allocated by HF to such schemes are actually loosing money assuming its cost of obtaining the funds is 8.5% (i.e. for this bond).

Regards
Wa_ithaka
#46 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:00:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
HFCK bond objective is to match fund its mortgage book.
So, yes if its borrowing at 8.5% and lending at 7.5%, that is not prudent or clever. And should be of concern to CBK assuming Njuguna knows what time it is
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
mwanahisa
#47 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:02:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Scooby,

I thought the only reason that HF was providing those ultra low interest mortgages was because the employer was putting up the funds. HF was only administering the loans and collecting a fee for it.
Scooby
#48 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:12:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Mwanahisa,

There has been this rivalry and/or competition between HF and Savings & Loan in terms of getting as many mortgage customers as possible.

They would enter into a deal with a certain company to ensure that most, if not all, of its employees get a mortgage from that company. In return, the employees get mortgages at higher LTVs and "concessionary" interest rates.

S & L had a similar deal with companies like CMA at around the same time. I haven't heard of such deals this year...

Regards
Scubidu
#49 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:28:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scoobs. So this is the problem i was trying to understand. Why were they allowed to raise so much in one go? Just to extend long term funding+small increase in capital.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#50 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 5:47:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I wouldn't be so worried about how much they are trying to raise as it is within the range of what has been or will be issued over time.

If you notice the trend - HF is 10 billion, Barclays is 12 billion, CfC Stanbic will be 5 billion and KCB was planned to be 15 billion.

My simplistic approach to this bond issue is this - where would I get a better return i.e. as a shareholder or bond holder. This is based on whats going on with the mortgage sector and the economy as a whole.

Regards


Scubidu
#51 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 6:23:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
From a return point of view KenGen makes more sense than HF esp for liquidity. But this isn't being marketed to retailers, so it's a godsend for fund managers. From a business risk point of view, I can't put money in a bank with rising cost of funds and falling lending rates. Btw subordinate liabilities have other conditions to qualify for capital other than duration (refer to post 44). That's why i hope the turnaround on these bond funds is fast and they'll not just park it in govt debt.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
mwanahisa
#52 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 6:40:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@Scubidu,

Ireri was on telly a week or so ago indicating that HF intends to have disbursed these funds by March next year. Looking at the way they have grown their loan book over the last 2 years while having to borrow from other banks, I think this is realistic.

@Scooby,

Unless you can make capital gains by trading the bond on the secondary market, under the current bullish environment, the returns on the stock are bound to be higher than the yield on the bond. As for risk adjusted return - I am not sure. I am referring to HF on this.
Scooby
#53 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 7:10:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Mwanahisa,

The question of whether one could invest in shares or bonds depends on their own risk profile and expectations of returns commensurate with their risk.

In your case, you seem to be comfortable with investing in HF shares...good for you.

As someone said in Wazua, you can ask X people for their opinion and you can be sure of getting X different opinions.

Regards
mwanahisa
#54 Posted : Thursday, September 30, 2010 8:06:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
C'est vrai - That is indeed true!
Scubidu
#55 Posted : Saturday, October 02, 2010 5:36:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
But alas. That's what this forum is about non? Funny thing heard that same comment describing asking questions to economists, traders, now stock-pickers (u can only use it only so many times before it's meaningless). Nway the auction is over. Any projections on subscription?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#56 Posted : Tuesday, October 05, 2010 10:39:31 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
http://www.businessdaily...0/-/gdos82z/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#57 Posted : Wednesday, October 06, 2010 12:40:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Absolutely reckless...oversubscribed by 41% and will exercise the greenshoe option. Let's wait and see the impact in next year's financials. 9b in debt @ about 7.5%.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#58 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 5:06:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I knew the bond would be oversubscribed...and a greater portion of investors would prefer the "fixed" bond and not the "floating" bond. I was expecting a greater portion of investors to take up the fixed portion like it was the case with CfC Stanbic.

Maybe they thought that they could earn a higher interest rate than the fixed bond...which I doubt it will happen due to the excess liquidity in the market. This is probably the new "normal" in our fixed income market right.

Out of curiosity, would you like for us to have more discussions about HF in mwanahisa's forum? We could also try to figure out the impact of this bond on the company.

That way we all try to figure out if there is something to worry (or not worry) about the company...regardless of whether one would prefer to invest in that bond or in shares.
Scubidu
#59 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 5:30:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. Which one?

http://www.wazua.com/for...spx?g=posts&m=24232

or

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&m=111676
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#60 Posted : Thursday, October 07, 2010 5:54:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

Am taking about the second forum...thanks for finding the link.

Cheers
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