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Effective duration and Convexity of bonds
Scooby
#31 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 4:29:06 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
@scubidu and Sasha

Ideally I do agree that local authorities should guarantee their local debts as is the case in other countries.

But the reality in Kenya is something totally different. That's the reason why the central government has to step in to guarantee the bond.

Am thinking that the new constitutional order will ensure more professionalism and accountability in the management of local authorities, or in this case counties.

The question is whether we all think that will be the case. So far, no one thinks that will ever happen.


emlyn ngwiri
#32 Posted : Tuesday, August 24, 2010 5:19:49 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
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Location: nairobi
hi guys sorry for the silance kiazi mingi,

@scubidu the senior subordinated cfc stanbic bond would not have a fixed and a floating rate of intersst if it were not using the tranche system of payment of interest to investors.With an option to invest on either a fixed or floating rate basis, the pricing for the first part stands at 175 basis points over the seven year bond.

This is the first tranche of a $64 million, capital raising exercise being undertaken by CFC Stanbic Bank. The net proceeds will be channeled towards general corporate purposes, liquidity and capital management as well as future growth of the bank, particularly its home loans portfolio.


we know very well that bonds have to be rated to establish their creditworthiness and so fitch rated the cfc stsnbic bond as BB+ which, according to them was distinctly speculative.

The balance of the capital raised is likely to be a combination of Tier II and senior debt and is expected to be raised within the next 12 months in the same market.a tier II implies that it could use Subordinated or revaluation reserves.

the tranche system works in both ways- in times of liquidation of the asset the senior tranche gets payment first befor any other creditor and when interst payments are made.

emlyn
Scubidu
#33 Posted : Tuesday, September 14, 2010 11:05:29 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Kenya’s capital markets is set for a jolt as the Government floats a Sh10 billion university bond early next year to help higher learning institutions raise much needed funds to admit more students.

Higher Education Minister William Ruto said that the university bond whose details are being finalised by Treasury will be guaranteed by the government, opening a new financing avenue for public universities.

“We are finalising deliberations with the treasury in enabling public universities raise capital through a university bond at between six and eight per cent rather than the market rates of 18 per cent,” said the minister.

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../0/-/2glfsi/-/index.html
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#34 Posted : Thursday, September 16, 2010 6:39:28 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi Scubidu,

Thanks for the update...

Might you have more details regarding the Housing Finance bond that is supposed to be issued this month?
Scubidu
#35 Posted : Thursday, September 16, 2010 8:43:07 PM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. Unfortunately no. Will ask my contacts. I suppose it'll be long term, 25 perhaps, 200bp premium?

Do you know anything about the new CBK rules on the bond bidding system....I heard that it was rejected jana. I don't understand what was going on. You know how it works?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#36 Posted : Wednesday, September 22, 2010 5:16:57 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi scubidu,

I finally managed to get a PDF copy of the Housing Finance Information Memorandum. You can get it from their website.

As for the "new" bidding system, what CBK is aiming to let the market determing the coupon rate for a particular bond issue. For instance, for a 2 year bond, the coupon rate for the bond issued in January 2010 was 8%. Now, investors have to let CBK know what rate they would like to be paid.

The big fuss with the bond traders, and their push for the system to be rejectd, is that there is too much liquidity in the market. Hence, this will lead to instances where the proposed rate could be much lower than the "ideal" rate.

I don't think the system can be rejected as it has been used in the March 2010 auction of the same bond.

Hope this helps!
Scubidu
#37 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:01:09 AM
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Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@scooby. What did you think of the 2 year auction? Well look at what the bidding has done to the other 2 year papers. Haven't they messed up secondary liquidity?.

Results for the auction:

http://www.centralbank.g...onds/manualresults.aspx

Yeah was looking at the HF IM jana. Noticed how generous the arrangers were in giving a 300bp premium but considering they're raising 175% their core capital, it's reasonable. Plus SCBK is one of the arrangers.

Interesting scenario though. They had 2 billion in lines of credit by H1 and leveraging further to 7 billion. Whereas equity is just over 4 billion. Have we been presented with this scenario before where debt is almost 50% of customer deposits?

Curious is that it's also unsubordinate debt. I had a debate on this forum once on the impact subordinate debt had on supplementary capital. What are the rules that apply to unsubordinate debt?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#38 Posted : Friday, September 24, 2010 11:45:27 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi Scubidu,

Regarding the 2 year bond issue, now you understand the fears that they have. I believe that the obsession by CBK with reducing interest rates is punish banks for not reducing their lending rates and/or increasing lending to the private sector.

If I were an investor, I would rather stay out of the market till sanity returns...there is no way am investing in products where the risk premium is too small/negligible for the risk you are taking or you are getting a negative real rate of return.

When looking at the HF Information Memorandum, did you get the impression that small investors are not welcome. Should the issue be oversubscribed, any investor who applied for Kshs. 100 million and above will receive their full share.

For sub ordinated, banks can be allowed to include it as part of their Tier II capital. If it has a duration of 5 years or more, then the entire amount can be allowed. Otherwise, it is prorated for lower durations.

Of note, if you look at the proposed requirements for Basel III, banks will be discouraged from this practise.

Regards
Scubidu
#39 Posted : Saturday, September 25, 2010 3:56:17 PM
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Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi

Yup I agree the risk premium is inadequate and the issue with the cut-off rate...the dividend yield on an index linked fund would give you more or less the same as a two year.

I'm guessing Treasury will fill up it's quota of borrowing for this budget before the end of the year then stay out of primaries next year. But it's taking a tole if the recent 91D undersub is anything to go by.

As for HF, yup it's not targeting retailers, but it won't be liquid enuf for secondary. The only coupon that makes any sense in the primaries is the fixed one (much like CFC in 2009), but what about the greater impact on finance costs? But the valuation on the fixed coupon is far more attractive than it's equity counterpart.

I thot sub debt contribution to capital also depended on a bank's debt to tier 1 capital ratio? Or else wouldn't all banks be tempted to raise capital this way?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#40 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 5:37:06 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Hi Scubidu,

There are two components of capital for a bank

Tier I - which is mainly made up of share capital (including share premium), retained earnings and preference share capital

Tier II - which would include such items as subordinated debt and general provisions.

Most financial institutions would prefer to issue subordinated debt to share capital due to the message it wants to send to the market.

For instance, HF had earlier indicated that they would either issue more shares or debt this year. There was a feeling that investors would be fatiqued by another rights issue after the one they did in 2008. Thats what you saw with the KCB rights issue - hence it was under subscribed.

Hope this helps.
Scubidu
#41 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 8:52:26 PM
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Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Yes scooby. I'm aware of Tier II capital. However, in most cases to the best my knowledge from Barclays to CFC to I&M, most subordinate debt did not exceed 50% of core capital. I assumed this is a regulatory rule considering some banks disclose that requirement in their books. We had a brief conversation about this a while ago (refer to link below).

http://www.wazua.com/for...osts&t=6126&p=5

But if you're right then what stops other banks like Barclays issuing debt capital that exceeds equity? So equity is capitalised at 25b. HF raise about 175% its core capital. So could Barclays theoretically issue more than 15b in debt and add it to its tier II capital?

KCB had initially considered raising 15b from a bond if I'm not mistaken, why did they change there mind. Perhaps realistically they couldn't raise more than 11b and it seems they didn't what to issue it in tranches, possibly the primary reason for choosing equity to raise the 15b in one go.

Their objective was to raise capital? Perhaps HF's objective was to raise long term funds. What you think? I'm more concerned about the HF's finance costs based on the debt:equity ratio/leverage than why HF were allowed to issue so much debt?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#42 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 9:31:10 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I don't think a bank would want to issue either shares or debt if they already meet the minimum capital requirement. FYI, Barclays did issue the first tranche (Shs. 5 billion) of a Shs. 12 billion subordinated debt in 2007/2008.

Also, its not about the level of capital that you have, but how well you put your capital to use. Equity Bank is currently trying to figure out how to use its large capital base hence their big interest in Housing Finance.

For KCB, the decision for opt for debt or equity is purely a management decision. Maybe they decided to have a rights issue first then a debt issue later..like what HF did.

For HF, you shouldn't be worried about financing costs. Look at Net Interest Income instead...which compares the interest income earned on the mortgages to the cost of funding deposits/debts.
CapitalMarketsGeek
#43 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 1:35:09 AM
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Joined: 9/11/2010
Posts: 36
Scooby and Scobidu...
If the company issued more debt and could actually raise capital using debt, then thats great coz debt financing is cheaper than equity financing thats why companies prefer debt finance over equity finance. The only thing that stop a company from being 100% debt financed is that there is a point in a capital structure model above which financial distress is imminent and its well over 50% debt but varies btw industries.
Scubidu
#44 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 11:15:55 AM
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Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Cool scooby. I'm actually looking at the interest margin for Q2 which wasn't really good, but i hope HF can translate those funds into revenue. They don't seem to hold much govt debt so i hope they have good liquidity in future to leverage on their capital base.

http://www.basel-ii-acco...uents_of_capital_49.htm

@CMG. Debt financing is indeed cheaper in terms of the intermediary costs vs bank loans. But with banks like HF I'm wondering whether leverage is really the best thing, given the statement some guys have made on real estate on the basel post.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scooby
#45 Posted : Wednesday, September 29, 2010 4:51:54 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Scubidu,

I started to get worried about a decline in HF's net interest rate margin as from 2008. If you remember, that's when they started issuing mortgage packages to various companies at ridiculuosly low interest rates.

For instance, Nation Media staff were being granted loans at 7%. Here is the link that am referring to - http://www.housing.co.ke...=newsevents&sid=95.

So, one would realise that any funds allocated by HF to such schemes are actually loosing money assuming its cost of obtaining the funds is 8.5% (i.e. for this bond).

Regards
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