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SCOM at Kshs. 4
Njung'e
#51 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 10:29:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Jamani,
Nice list there.We can also come up with expected revenue drop and estimates of individual costs so that we can determine what goes out first.....but sadly,the employees here will be pawns especially if the company posts more than 50% drop in generated revenues.Likely?...Yes.Just this morning i called a friend who is a dealer and he actually confessed that business is really bad (We are going to double our talking time stuff was pure air).His average daily sales have dropped from 30k to 5k...huh!
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Pablo
#52 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 10:38:55 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/17/2008
Posts: 567
Location: Nairobi
The sooner safcom agrees they are in a life thretening position the sooner they can do something about it.

In last year’s Financial Statement notes there was this statement on going concern

(iii) Critical judgment on going concern - (page 52 of their annual report)
The Group’s current liabilities exceed its current assets by Shs 11,249,325,000 (2009: Shs 18,258,138,000) at the balance sheet date. This position is expected to remain a net liability in the near future. However, the Group continues to grow its revenue and to generate sufficient cash to meet its obligations as they arise and in line with the long term plans of the business. Management reviews the cash forecast monthly and determines its cash requirements.


The principle assumption is the increase of revenues. Now how possible is this.
Companies dont close cause they are not making profits, they close cause they run out of cash. Their current liabilities catch up with them.
mlennyma
#53 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 10:43:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Safcom seems to be refusing the invitation by eveready for a cup of tea
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
kyt
#54 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 10:44:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/7/2007
Posts: 2,182
Did saf see this coming really? Sigh!
LOVE WHAT YOU DO, DO WHAT YOU LOVE.
Sober
#55 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 10:44:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
@X13united.
Stop It. That was a misleading question. during the pev safcom ws not yet listed until six months later.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
radio
#56 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:42:10 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/9/2009
Posts: 2,003
Njung'e wrote:
@Jamani,
... His average daily sales have dropped from 30k to 5k...huh!


Translating to 83% drop!!!!!!!!Those are scary figures..

But this SCOM downfall is coming closer home when the jobs of family and friends are on the line and only last year they received mega bonuses!!!

I agree with Pablo
Pablo wrote:
The sooner safcom agrees they are in a life thretening position the sooner they can do something about it....
sheep
#57 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:55:28 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
where are the number crunchers kina proverb,VVS and the like...to give us the financial ratios pap!

we could be having our own version of titanic here...
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
alma
#58 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 11:57:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/20/2007
Posts: 4,432
History has shown that the last people to believe a company is in trouble are employees.

Even Enron employees were buying the company shares 30 minutes before the assessors entered their building and some 3 months after the whole world had been dumping the stocks.

Pablo is right. However, I think the management knows that there will be some serious adjustments ahead. But would you tell the employees that some will go home?

Their only hope is if Bharti Airtel crashes in India. It can happen. But don't hold your breath.

My friend is considering selling his safcom business. Sales have dropped over 60% so go figure.
Jose: If I make it through this thug life, I'll see you one day. The Lord is the only way to stop the hurt.
2012
#59 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 12:10:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
I'm not a safaricom fan but I think they can survive this. I'm sure they have great strategists here and at vodafone. There's still a lot of untapped market and scom remains top of mind in the rural areas mainly because of Mpesa. What is happening now was expected and inevitable and I expect a company of safaricom's stature to have anticipated and prepared early for this.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#60 Posted : Tuesday, September 28, 2010 12:13:10 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
sheep wrote:
where are the number crunchers kina proverb,VVS and the like...to give us the financial ratios pap!

we could be having our own version of titanic here...

Pole... Sina hisa za Safaricom... So I am not really into doing the numbers!

All I can say is that the Voice ARPU will drop by a huge margin in 2H thus severely impacting the PAT.

Data has grown phenomenally as as M-Pesa but I doubt they are enough to cover 'losses' in Voice profits.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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