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KQ in 2010-11 (Boom, Bust or Blah)
VituVingiSana
#161 Posted : Wednesday, September 22, 2010 7:15:50 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa is right. The price is NOT at 24/-... but 47/- so there is good news in-built. The question is what is expected for next year?

I, like many others, have been bullish on earnings [I have no inside info] but the news reports that KQ needed a new/additional plane for NBO-MBA flights, additional planes/embraers leased, new destinations (Luanda, Muscat, Juba, etc), World Cup, etc meant 1H looked better vs last year...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#162 Posted : Wednesday, September 22, 2010 7:20:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Assuming that the increase will not have been factored prior to the announcement. Tripling of KQ's 2009-10 H1 PAT takes it to Kshs 2.58B in 2010-11 or Half Year EPS of Kshs 5.6.

If we assume a neutral or positive outlook statement and that the profits have arisen out of operations, folks would start postulating full year EPS of Kshs 9 after discounting some risk in H2. KQ is an airline after all.

Historically, KQ has generally traded at a foward PE of 10 or therabouts. Theoretical price could then be headed back to Kshs 90+.

I trust that this is a hypothetical situation. I am fairly certain that KQ cannot achieve this feat in this Half, unless of course you are referring to the Operating Profits which were a miserly 160 million. I expect this to go up by a factor of more than 10!!!
VituVingiSana
#163 Posted : Wednesday, September 22, 2010 7:47:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
KQ will increase frequencies to Hong Kong & Guangzhou from Oct 2010 to daily using 777s...

http://www.facebook.com/...a/posts/153402864680851

Also daily flights to Naijaland using larger 777s...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#164 Posted : Wednesday, September 22, 2010 10:58:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Daily to China and Naija means much better utilization of crew as they don't have to stay for days in Lagos or China waiting for a plane to bring back to Nrb.
Meanwhile I believe KQ goes xd on Friday - should we expect a price drop?
the deal
#165 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 1:19:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
IATA projects the highest growth in passenger numbers in 2010 will come from the fast East & Africa...nice move KQ...now Boeing deliver those planes....
VituVingiSana
#166 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 1:24:29 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,362
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Daily to China and Naija means much better utilization of crew as they don't have to stay for days in Lagos or China waiting for a plane to bring back to Nrb.
Meanwhile I believe KQ goes xd on Friday - should we expect a price drop?
Well, the dividend is 1/- so it matters little if it drops 1/- after it is xd...

I wish I could go for the AGM lakini it is a whole day affair!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#167 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 8:35:46 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mwanahisa wrote:

I trust that this is a hypothetical situation. I am fairly certain that KQ cannot achieve this feat in this Half, unless of course you are referring to the Operating Profits which were a miserly 160 million. I expect this to go up by a factor of more than 10!!!



how do you propose the above to be achieved?.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Pierce
#168 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 9:05:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/16/2009
Posts: 1,464
KQ going xd will not affect the share price. The low dividend payout is actually the 'cause' of the current low price.

Having said that, the possibility I have propositioned is not factored into the current share price.

Let's await 4th of Nov.
mlennyma
#169 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:58:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
IATA now predicts profit boom in the airline industry...source ntv
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
ProverB
#170 Posted : Thursday, September 23, 2010 12:40:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Pierce wrote:
KQ going xd will not affect the share price. The low dividend payout is actually the 'cause' of the current low price.


but dividend payout has forever been low how could it be the reason for the current low price of the KQ share??.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
66 Pages«<1516171819>»
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