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EAPC profit warning
Surealligator
#1 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 11:46:41 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 709
Location: Velayat-e Faryab
With over 53 million dollars loan to pay in yen denomination, East African Portland Cement is headed for rough waters. The Yen has appreciated against the Kenya Shilling by almost 40%. If EAPC profits wont be dented, they will be wiped out, period.Sad {|=
Go overdrive in purchasing the goods when there's blood on the streets, expecially if the blood is your own
kizee
#2 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 11:48:40 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
i had this argument a year or 2 ago...no one in wazua thought they shud hedge the loan...the usdjpy is at a 15 year high! and the BOJ is not intervening! nikufyam
Njung'e
#3 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 12:05:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Results will be out today.......Get ready for a loss.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Intelligentsia
#4 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 1:58:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
I heard this many many more yrs ago, I thought they had retired this yen-denominated term loan by a swap by now!
It is a classic case study of how ignoring the effect of foreign exchange risk can wreak havoc on your bottom line even as the topline is performing. It is also failure to read the fine print in the loan agreement since the various options like pre-payment of the loan were expressly forbidden in the loan covenants signed with the japanese financier - and have been paying their pound of flesh ever since. Plus the allegations of mismanagement. Iko sida hapa.
Wa_ithaka
#5 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 2:09:51 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Sure-you are not the only one who has questioned the sanity of the Board and senior managers at EAPC re this Yen loan. The amount of losses EAPC has made would have made anybody swap it locally with Ksh, but no.
I wonder what the shareholders talk about at the AGMs. The size of the chicken portions?
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
passiveinvestor
#6 Posted : Thursday, September 09, 2010 7:34:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/8/2006
Posts: 104
I have it on good authority that the board stated that they would hedge the exposure and that besides that the GOK would absorb the FX losses on the loan.
hisah
#7 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 5:58:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee wrote:
i had this argument a year or 2 ago...no one in wazua thought they shud hedge the loan...the usdjpy is at a 15 year high! and the BOJ is not intervening! nikufyam


The usdjpy is at 15yr low since this is read as usd vs jpy. Anyway the yen has gained against major currencies. The swiss franc too has done the same. The $ safe haven status is at stake as per the moves of the yen (despite japan being in heavy debt) & franc plus gold & silver.
EAPC will bleed on this huge yen gains. It's becoming suicidal to borrow in forex as the money sys is under stress since 2008. It's a good thing gov shelved that eurobond. I don't think the yen will gain anymore going forward since forex COT (Commitment of Traders) shows a bullish extreme of yen positions. This warns of a major turn just like what happened to the eur/usd. I also expect the BoJ (bank of japan) to intervene on the yen strength since the jap econ is on the ropes & exports matters to this econ.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee
#8 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 12:47:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
tx for that hishash..usdjpy is at 15 r lows..lol..hey regrading the yen the line in the sand is 83 and the mkt is lukin set to test that lvl...eapc cud easily hedge this loan out...

@passiveinvestor..i dont get why the GOK wud do this..the hedge wud really not cost EAPCC anything as it wud be a mere exchange of cashflows....
githendu
#9 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 1:09:27 PM
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Joined: 9/10/2010
Posts: 1
I agree with kizee. more to this companies should not always look to govt to bail them when its their own blunder (lack of planning)
kizee
#10 Posted : Friday, September 10, 2010 1:28:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
githendu wrote:
I agree with kizee. more to this companies should not always look to govt to bail them when its their own blunder (lack of planning)



yes because ultimately the tax payer is the looser
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