VVS, ur a Buffett fan, you should know what I'm talking about.....the business should be both predictable and consistent. That obviously doesn't mean straight line.....but thanks.

No, no, no...

Buffett does NOT necessarily favour predictability... He just wants to be compensated for the certainty...

He says that he does not mind LUMPY returns (not straight-line) as long as the OVERALL return is above average... Coz Buffett is willing to wait. In my case, these are AGRICULTURALS unless there is a fundamental shift e.g. giddy + baba decide to raze all forests & grab farms claiming ancestral right!

BH's largest business is INSURANCE which is for the most part 'unpredictable'...

Certainty: A matatu will hit your car. Guaranteed!
Unpredictability: When? Leo? Kesho? Kesho Kutwa? 2011? 2012? 2030?

So BH will 'provide' for the inevitability/certainty but when makwere becomes transport minister... the chances will increase...

So BH (insurance) wants a premium that reflects the certainty coupled with actuarial tables or smarts...

I beg to differ there. Insurance risks can be predicted with a good level of accuracy. Before u go ballistic, I'm sure you know the risk model geico uses and that their combines ratio has been within a pretty close figure to their estimates. I remeber reading an annual report of BRK and Warren did say that he wouldn't invest in abusiness that is reliant on factors that are out of anyones control, I'm sorry i can't quote which year because this would be one heck
Of a task as u know. If u look at BRKs holdings, not one is an agric company. Only a farm Implements company. Even locally, companies like jub have done well with The risk model.

Little known British firm behind Kakuzi www.nation.co.ke/busines...1006/998802/-/tpd1giz/-/

@the merchant i think you mean 87.. and will get a move on once the profit takers who bought at 34 are finished selling....

so buy now!!!