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Need advice: DTB @110 coop @16 EB @25
bartum
#11 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 2:06:50 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
take all of them at right prices
msimon
#12 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 2:13:49 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
Well most of these banks are good, the only problem is that they are overvalued. At if you consider current and past growth trends to estimate value, the only bank i see selling below intrinsic value at the moment is NIC Bank. About which bank's shares are going to the moon, its really hard to know what the market is going to do next quarter let alone next week. But if you buy below intrinsic and hold something good may happen you you. If your holding EB, you may need to hold although its clearly selling above Intrinsic by a premium of about 31% based on last years results.But you may reduce some position and plough some cash in other financials.
KIRTI
#13 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 2:54:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
I can recommend to buy DTB @ 110, NIC @ 45-46, KCB @ 19 & CFC @ 88.
I am expecting DTS @150, NIC @57, KCB @24 & CFC @120 by April 2012.
EQUITY, CO OP, STANDARD CHARTERED & BARCLAYS are overvalued share
KIRTI
#14 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 2:55:39 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
SOrry by April 2011
youcan'tstopusnow
#15 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 3:12:32 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 3:14:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
KIRTI wrote:
EQUITY, CO OP, STANDARD CHARTERED & BARCLAYS are overvalued share

Are you taking into account the half year results they posted?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
KIRTI
#17 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 3:38:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
We have seen three major shocks during 2008 & 2009
1 The globle economic crisis
2 Prolonged drought
3 PEV
We have very good year 2010. but you cannot say coming years will be same of 2010. i will not suggest to buy any share of Financial sector with above 12 PE ratio. Safaricom shares are going down because of ZAIN price war. If they will go on Zap agressively & joint with other bank for mpesa then Equity will definetely come down.
cnn
#18 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 4:13:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@kiriti,you are aware CFC will not be a single entity by 2011?.I agree with you on the four you named banks being too expensive i would also go for the mid caps.
msimon
#19 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 4:38:00 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/23/2010
Posts: 63
Location: Kampala
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
msimon, interested to know what discount you say NIC is trading on percentage wise or what you think is its intrinsic value. Share other counters on the NSE you think are trading below their intrinsic values and you can compare your notes with other Wazuans. Welcome to Wazua.


[youcan'tstopusnow], i estimate NIC's intrinsic to be btn 60-55/- based on last years earnings.If i double their half year results and add a worst case senario, this equates to 65-60/-. I would be interested at present levels although if the stock falls low, i'll be dancing to the broker. the discount to value here is at worst 23% assuming you buy at 45. My target entry point is 41 and below. Kenya Re too is selling at abig discount to value, we estimate is at btn 20-17, to be abit conservative, i would put it at 17. For some time it has been trading below book. Co-op bank has an Intrinsic value of about 23-19 at 17. there's some margin close to 10% from intrinsic. Those are financials that are attractive and selling for less than intrinsic. For industrials and commercial, we use free cashflow to value them, most haven't been producing positive free cash and the ones that have are overvalued, (selling for more than 10x free cash per share.)
KIRTI
#20 Posted : Monday, August 23, 2010 4:48:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2010
Posts: 116
Thanks. As per CFC Q1 & H1 result it might go up.
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